Energy, Environment, Security: Can we have it all?

So Steven E. Kooonin swung by the quaint little champaign-urbana area in the middle of nowhere to grace this year's Beckman Lecture Series as the speaker. I must say being the Chief Scientist of BP does translate into some kind of pompousness.

Key take-aways:

1. Though intensity of carbon use has decreased in recent years, carbon emission levels have increased. In order to prevent the carbon concentration levels in the atmosphere to rise beyond 550-600(ppm) as current trends predict, reduction in emissions need to reach a factor of -2. However, imagine if China and/or India's emissions achieved parity with that of Japan (least emissions amongst the developed nations), global emissions will increase by 40%. So amidst concerns of global warming etc, I think something new he higlighted was the unhealthy carbon concentration level. Timeframe: within my lifetime. damn it.

2. Problems impeding energy solutions include scale, cost competition with alernatives, players with divergent interests and longevity of fixed asset investments. Behind the velvet curtains of the energy theatre, lies the backstage crew of economical forces and political will.

3. Education needs to penetrate not only the public, but policy makers and academia to infuse some sort of global direction, one that isn't misguided by personal interests and selfish gains.

This leads me to the whole new topic of behavioral economics which worships self-interests as describe in the book 'Mind of the Market'. Not a topic for today's discussion though.

i feel like Al Gore

GREEN RANTS!

So a while ago I was making noise about China (and risking the chance that 1/6 people in the WORLD might spit on me) and how they are chugging gasoline....

Now now, we have more company.

India has a seemingly insatiable appetite for cars, as shown in this traffic jam in a suburb of New Delhi,­ and the oil needed to run them, contributing to growing worldwide demand for petroleum.

Glorious

it began with a glorious day out. Though it was around 54F, but the sun was at its brightest, beaming. (think Tellytubby Sun).

And then the expression of God's love manifested through baptism today; teary-eyed, 4 souls in a public proclaimation, functioning both as a reminder and expression of the grace that flows in our lives.

And then the worship, relentless powerful week by week.

Everyone needs compassion

Love that’s never failing

Let mercy fall on me

Everyone needs forgiveness

The kindness of a Saviour

The hope of nations

Saviour

He can move the mountains

For my God is mighty to save

He is mighty to save

Forever

Author of salvation

He rose and conquered the grave

Jesus conquered the grave

I thank God for despite the lack of spiritual entities in my life now, week by week he sustains me with his powerful presence in his santuary at church. And every week I get reminded of how he is truly the author of salvation.

it's times like these

walking back to the dorm from classes yesterday...

weather was beautiful, the grass was bright green, the spring-time flowers are blooming, people laying on the quad. the breeze in my face, ipod in my ears - patrick park on the playlist... and all I can express is..

"AH.................." :)

It's times like these i thank God for everything and bringing me to America:)

conversations

A random conversation in my Professor's office today and I came across this book at the corner of my eye:

"Blue Ocean Strategy"

Came back, internet-ed it for abit; here's the synopsis

In the authors' words:

"The only way to beat the competition is to stop trying to beat the competition. In red oceans, the industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the competitive rules of the game are known. In blue oceans, competition is irrelevant because the rules of the game are waiting to be set. ...The companies caught in the red ocean followed a conventional approach, racing to beat the competition by building a defensible position within the existing industry order. The creators of blue oceans, surprisingly, didn't use the competition as their benchmark. ...Instead of focusing on beating the competition, they focus on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for buyers and your company, thereby opening up new and uncontested market space. …

Value innovation is based on the view that market boundaries and industry structure are not 'given' and can be reconstructed by the actions and beliefs of industry players. …To fundamentally shift the strategy canvas of an industry, you must begin by reorienting your strategic focus from competitors to alternatives, and from customers to non-customers of an industry. As you shift your strategic focus from current competition to alternatives and non-consumers, you gain insight into how to redefine the problem the industry focuses on and thereby reconstruct buyer value elements that reside across industry boundaries"

The first example in "Blue Ocean Strategy" is Cirque de Soleil. The criteria/boundaries/rules for the circus industry that were "taken for granted" for decades included: animal shows, star/famous performers, multiple shows at the same time (i.e. 3 rings), and pushing concession sales. Rather than keeping a high emphasis on all the existing rules and then creating new ones, they either eliminated or reduced many of those rules and created a bunch of new ones. In the process, they increased value for their target market while lowering their own costs.

A key thing they did at Cirque de Soleil was that they looked across market boundaries to alternatives to the circus. It ended up being part circus and part theatre. Rather than focus on the market boundaries, they focused on the job the customer was hiring for -- in this case, it was adults looking for sophisticated entertainment.

Another key thing they did was not targeting the existing market (i.e. children), rather they targeted non-consuming adults. Blue ocean strategy is all about creating and capturing net new demand by ignoring boundaries defined by traditional competitors. The authors are big on stressing that new technology rarely turns into a great company. They state that unless the technology makes buyers lives dramatically simpler, more convenient, more productive, less risky, or more fun/fashionable, it will not attract the masses.

Think about it: the Nintendo Wii - classic case of a blue ocean strategy break through:_

green rants

Mouawad, J. (2008, April 20th). The Big Thirst. New York Times. Retrieved April 20th 2008 from http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/weekinreview/20mouawad.html?ref=weekinreview

... Oil now accounts for just 19 percent of China’s energy needs. But China’s oil demand is expected to more than double by 2030 to over 16 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency, as more people rise from poverty, move out of villages and buy more cars.

Just as in the United States, much of the increase in China’s oil demand has come from that country’s love affair with cars. The number of vehicles in China rose sevenfold between 1990 and 2006, to 37 million. China has now surpassed both Germany and Japan to become the second-largest car market in the world, and is set to overtake the United States by around 2015. China could have as many as 300 million vehicles by 2030.

William Chandler, an energy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, estimates that if the Chinese were using energy like Americans, global energy use would double overnight and five more Saudi Arabias would be needed just to meet oil demand. India isn’t far behind. By 2030, the two counties will import as much oil as the United States and Japan do today.

What about the United States? The country has shown little willingness to address its energy needs in a rational way. James Schlesinger, the nation’s first energy secretary in the 1970s, once said the United States was capable of only two approaches to its energy policy: “complacency or crisis.”

The United States is the only major industrialized nation to see its oil consumption surge since the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s. This can partly be explained by the fact that the United States has some of the lowest gasoline prices in the world, the least fuel-efficient cars on the roads, the lowest energy taxes, and the longest daily commutes of any industrialized nation. The result: about a quarter of the world’s oil goes to the United States every day, and of that, more than half goes to its cars and trucks.

Old prices are at $116 a barrel now but then again that's still based on speculative prices and the weak dollar and the futures. So when will this looming crisis ever.... actually loom?

I dont wish to think about it but guess what, when it actually looms, in the next 2 1/2 decades or so, imagine a world without sustainable energy. Imagine... energy rationing. (re: last week's south park episode on Internet rationing) Imagine, hours without electricity.

In fact, it's impossible to imagine this.

But remember playing Red Alert 2 and like 2 hours into the quest you run out of orefields to mine for cash and you basically start selling structures to salvage yourself? (I'm clearly a poor Red Alert player)

What will happen when the world runs out of energy.

P.S. I think wind, solar, hydro energy account for less than 1% of total global energy production now.

Solution?

There is no solution. The unprecedented prosperity and economic fertility the US enjoyed for the longest ever is now being looked upon as a prime model for everyone else in the world to catch up with. That's ... a couple billion people in China and India combined. They want what they had never been entitled to. and they want it now.

God save this land.

things to do before you die

1...
2...
3...
4...
5. Experience an Earthquake [CHECK]
6...
7...
8...

So it's kind of ridiculous but yesterday in the middle of central Illinois, an earthquake hit. Yes. Central Illinois. I found out today that there's apparently some fault line down in Southern Illinois and hence the tectonic activity and hence the earthquake.

It was DAMN exciting. I woke up thinking I was dreaming, only to feel the wall shaking along with my bed. Difficult to make sense of though, because I kept thinking I was in the middle of America and Earthquakes can't emerge in the middle of a plate. (so apparently i was wrong)

But yes! Experience an earthquake.. Check!

Next up, a tornado, that ll be sweeeeeeeeet.

Randy Pausch Lecture: Really Achieving Your Childhood Dream

ok i may be a little late but this is for Randy Pausch:

"Carnegie Mellon Professor Randy Pausch, who is dying from pancreatic cancer, gave his last lecture at the university Sept. 18, 2007."

So this reminded me of that little advertisement that flooded the bus stops before i left: this black and white poster that was talking about the last things to do before you die. But it kind of had a gloomy shadow of deathly hollows. It was something about dying and people. Death in fact.

But Randy Pausch delivers this lecture with 3 months left to live (he's still alive today though) with so much passion and humor and most importantly, a legacy and many lessons left behind for humankind.

I wish one day I could turn around when i am 40-50 and list out 5 things I learned in life and the string of things achieved, that can mirror the magnitude of what Randy achieved. Most importantly, how he sought to achieve things he dreamt of when he was a child. And unlike most people, he made them come through.

He achieved zero gravity
He's as comfortable on the football field as an NFL player
He worked as a day-a-week consultant at Disney Imagineer
He met Captain Kirk

Inspiration 101.

tell me, did the wind sweep you off your feet?

well, on a rather retarded note, the wind did sweep me off my feet today: it was strong as hell and getting to and from classes was a total disaster.

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been pretty bogged down with work lately; also with the impending prospect of being on a flight back home, alot of things are just flooding my head. Routines and responsibilities? But also 2 vacations and much food and many people to anticipate. We'll see how it eventually figures.

So this is the random chart i came up with because i am so bored of doing work already. I shall name it the... hyperbolic theory of emotional preference.

*advisory note: the whole curve still remains on the POSITIVE y-axis.

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On another note, I am writing a paper against lowering the drinking age to 18; BUT i think it is the perfect policy to get rid of the alcoholic craze in this crazy country. I am writing against my will. So, I have to convince myself.

Spring

So spring seems to be finally here. As in its here to stay, and that's a good thing.

The Sun's out, people are playing frisbee and what-nots on the quad.

We can dress in shorts and t-shirts again.

conversations

MSN-ed with Mr. fastman Loke a while back. Wah damn it miss everyone suddenly KNS!

It's really spring because it is slightly warmer, i can keep my leather jacket and the squirrels are out.

Squirrels:

Okay so this question was kinda hanging by my mind all throughout winter.

Squirrels are given a wonderful layer of fur as a natural coat. They look pretty and adorable and all. During the winter, this coat gives them a nice protection from the cold. Plus, they sleep and hibernate and conserve energy and all that jazz. (btw, jizz represents a damn disgusting term in America)

What about summer? Its 95F and they have that same damn coat on their body. But, they can't take it off.

I don't understand.

Can some animal science major explain to me.

A tribute to squirrels: some owning photo i found online

back to you

dear dusk, yes yes yes pls dig them out because i want to burn a sentimental shite disc all together again for my keepsake and i can take it out 20 years later and feel even more sentimental then. remember our calatrava video session when I come back (wah damn exciting please). I am giving my presentation tmr wish me luck.

So after this week, its 2 more weeks to your freedom so hang in there. I have 5. Then i can return to eat what i have been missing out for the past 8 months or so. (that's alot of food).

I think the SEAsia pictures makes me sentimental/emo also. Those 2 months that I was there, i was literally as carefree as a bird, as bird would call me, a bird too. I guess you must have had the most wonderful journey during your trip too.

and you know what song reminds me of you? Holiday in Spain. haha. no reason in particular.

Good luck to you. Sleep more or you ll turn into an old woman. Drink chicken essence or something. Just stop waking up at 4am to do work!

p.s.
There are about 5 songs in my life that reminds me of 5 people. 1's already dead.

The Patriot

A recent conversation with another friend in London plus some random polls leads me to this conclusion: somehow I am getting a tad bit more patriotic the longer time I spend in another country.

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Loh, D (2008). MM Lee says S'pore needs to find new ways to stay ahead of competition. Channelnewsasia. Retrieved 1st April 2008 from http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/338708/1/.html

Mr Lee said Singapore is now one of the largest foreign exchange trading and wealth management centres in the region and he believes there are concrete reasons for this.

He said: "Swiss banks and other wealth management banks don't come to a country unless they're sure there's stability, certainty, rule of law, strict systems for money laundering and predictability."